Brazil
Emissions profile
According to Climate Watch (2026), Brazil accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ranking as the world’s 6th largest emitter in 2023, with total emissions of 2,125.32 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). In per capita emissions, in that same year Brazil emitted approximately 10 tonnes of CO₂e per inhabitant (tCO₂e/inhabitant).
The country is also a major emitter of methane (CH₄), one of the most polluting GHGs. According to the most recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2025), Brazil is currently the world's 4th largest methane emitter, totaling 21,702 kilotonnes (kt) in 2025. Approximately 71% of these emissions come from domestic agriculture.
Unlike the global profile, Brazil's main emissions do not come from fossil fuel combustion, but rather from the sector known as LULUCF, i.e., emissions from land use, land-use change and forests/forestry. In Brazil, most forest-related emissions are linked to deforestation for agriculture use.
Brazil is home to the largest expanse of tropical forest in the world: about one-third of the world's remaining tropical forests are located within its territory (NICFI, 2026). At the same time, the country is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases associated with forests, underscoring the central role of deforestation and land-use change in Brazil's emissions profile (WRI, 2025).
The share of each sector in Brazil's emissions profile is as follows (Climate Watch, 2026):
- Land use, land-use change and forestry – LULUCF (43%) – 916.5 MtCO₂e;
- Agriculture (27%) – 581.95 MtCO₂e;
- Energy (22%) – 477.11 MtCO₂e;
- Waste (4%) – 93.81 MtCO₂e;
- Industrial processes (3%) – 56.44 MtCO₂e.
Energy Mix
Brazil's energy matrix is dominated by oil and oil products and by biofuels and waste, the two largest sources of total supply. At the same time, the combined shares of renewable sources and fossil fuels are almost evenly balanced. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2026), in 2025 each group accounted for about 49% of the country's total energy supply. Total supply, of 13,708,782 TJ, was distributed as follows:
- Oil and oil products (36%) – 4,941,622 TJ;
- Biofuels and waste (33%) – 4,540,969 TJ;
- Hydropower (11%) – 1,445,095 TJ;
- Natural gas (9%) – 1,226,220 TJ;
- Solar, wind and other renewables (6%) – 784,897 TJ;
- Coal and coal products (4%) – 597,244 TJ;
- Nuclear (1%) – 172,735 TJ.
Regarding electricity generation, Brazil ranks 23rd out of 198 countries in terms of the share of renewable sources in its electricity mix (Climate Watch, 2026). According to the IEA, approximately 87% of the country's electricity is generated from renewable sources. Electricity generation is dominated by hydropower (52% – 401,415 GWh), followed by wind (15% – 116,488 GWh), solar photovoltaic (11% – 88,140 GWh), biofuels (9% – 66,089 GWh), and natural gas (8% – 58,644 GWh) (IEA, 2026).
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2026), Brazil ranks 17th globally on the Energy Transition Index (ETI), placing first in the Latin America and Caribbean region.
Climate Ambition
Latest updates
Nationally Determined ContributionLAST UPDATED: NOV/2024. Brazil met the update deadline set by the UNFCCC, presenting a new version of its Nationally Determined Contribution, with targets for 2035. This was its most ambitious and detailed NDC to date, including extensive context on national policies and projects dedicated to climate action in the country, with a strong focus on adaptation. It is the first time a Brazilian NDC recognizes the connection between climate change and children and youth, mentioning "consideration of the rights of children and future generations." It is also the first time Brazil references a "just transition" and "climate justice."
The NDC also explains and repeatedly references the country's new development strategies, especially the Ecological Transformation Plan (PTE). The PTE aims to "promote a shift in Brazil's economic, technological and cultural paradigms" in favor of development, job creation and productivity, while also being accompanied by concern for social justice and environmental and climate sustainability. The plan has six pillars: Sustainable finance; Technological deepening of the productive sector; Bioeconomy and agri-food systems; Energy transition; Infrastructure and climate change adaptation; and Circular economy.
Mitigation
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2016First NDC
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Second NDC2024
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2035Reduce by 59% to 67% below 2005 levels
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Net Zero target2050
The NDC sets out the following mitigation targets: First, the country intends to reduce net emissions by a "range" of between 59% and 67% below 2005 levels by 2035, corresponding to an emissions limit of between 1.05 and 0.85 GtCO₂e, respectively. In addition, Brazil has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Regarding the 2035 target, the 59% reduction below 2005 levels must be achieved exclusively through domestic policies and actions. Any additional reduction beyond that level—such as reaching 67%—can be interpreted as a conditional target of Brazil's NDC, as it depends on the availability of financing, investment or external support.
In this context, Brazil proposes expanding its climate ambition through 2035 by selling international carbon credits (ITMOs). Under Paris Agreement rules, reductions sold as credits cannot be counted toward the national target, but the government argues that attracting these resources will help finance additional mitigation projects and technologies within national territory. In this way, even after making the mandatory accounting adjustments, Brazil could further reduce its emissions and thereby create conditions to adopt a more ambitious target. This strategy, however, depends on mobilizing large-scale international investment and on solid environmental governance to ensure the climate integrity of the results.
NDC Challenges and Criticism
Although the new Brazilian NDC brings important advances, especially by strengthening the adaptation, climate justice and just transition pillars, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026) assessment finds that NDC 3.0 still does not put the country on a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit, classifying it as "Highly Insufficient." This means that if all countries adopted targets with the same level of ambition, global warming could reach around 4°C over the course of the century, close to the upper limit set out in the Agreement.
Brazil's 2035 targets did not increase ambition relative to the target set for 2030. Moreover, according to the CAT assessment, for Brazil's NDC to be compatible with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the country would need to cut its emissions much more significantly by 2035. Instead of the planned 59% to 67% reduction, Brazil would need to reduce its emissions by at least 84% relative to 2005 levels, including LULUCF sector.
In addition, the new NDC relies heavily on turning this sector into a net carbon sink. While controlling land use is essential and represents the country's greatest potential for emissions reduction, CAT projections indicate that, under the new NDC, emissions from other key sectors, such as industry, agriculture, energy and transport, remain stable or even increase. Based on these projections, the CAT assesses that the decarbonization of the Brazilian economy may proceed at a significantly slower pace than initially estimated.
Other criticisms of the new NDC focus on the so-called mitigation "band." According to the Observatório do Clima (2024), a coalition of Brazilian civil society organizations, "the 850 Mt[CO₂e] limit should be the floor, not the ceiling of ambition." The Talanoa Institute (2024) also notes that "Brazil's intention to sell internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) should complement—not replace—ambitious domestic emissions reductions."
Another point of criticism is the continued expansion of oil and gas production in Brazil, including in the Amazon region, such as the recent authorization for Petrobras to carry out exploratory drilling in the Foz do Amazonas Basin (Jornal Nacional, 2025). According to the CAT (2026), this expansion directly contradicts both Brazil's ambition to exercise climate leadership and the goals of the Paris Agreement. In response, environmental, Indigenous, quilombola and fishing organizations went to court to request the annulment of the license (Observatório do Clima, 2025).
Long-Term Strategy (LTS)
In its most recent NDC, Brazil committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2040 and net-zero emissions by 2050. These targets are also set out in the National Mitigation Strategy (2026), which is part of the Plano Clima. However, Brazil has not yet submitted its Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement.
The CAT (2026) rates this target as “poor”. Although it considers the commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 a step in the right direction, the CAT points to limitations in Brazil's mitigation strategy. The National Mitigation Strategy aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 based on net negative emissions to offset non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions, which are considered hard to abate. Between 2010 and 2020, these gases accounted for 45% of Brazil's total emissions. According to the CAT, the country needs to spell out how it intends to reduce emissions across all sectors of the economy, especially those not related to LULUCF. It also warns of the risks of excessive reliance on carbon removal from the atmosphere, whose results may not be viable in the long term.
Just Transition
With Brazil’s National Climate Change Plan (Plano Clima 2024–2035), just transition has become a cross-cutting component of the country’s climate strategy. Published in 2026, the Cross-Cutting Climate Action Strategy: Just Transition and Climate Justice (known by its Portuguese acronym, ETTJ), guides the implementation of the Plano Clima, aiming to promote just transition and climate justice as part of the effort to build a more sustainable and equitable society.
To this end, the ETTJ adopts a broad understanding of just transition that goes beyond changes in the energy sector and their effects on the labor market. In the Brazilian context, just transition is defined as a pathway toward a low-greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient model of socioeconomic development, guided by sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. This approach takes into account the specific characteristics of different economic sectors, countries' differentiated responsibilities, the reduction of impacts on vulnerable groups, climate justice, and efforts to combat hunger, poverty, and inequality. Its aim is to prevent the costs of the transition from being distributed unevenly and to ensure that its benefits are shared more equitably.
To guide its implementation, the strategy sets out 11 national objectives:
- Socio-environmental Integrity: Ensure the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of ecosystems and biomes, while recognizing the interdependence of human, environmental, and animal health.
- Labor Market: Promote productive inclusion, professional training, and decent work in low-emission and climate-resilient sectors, while strengthening social protection and working conditions.
- Food Systems: Make agriculture and livestock farming more sustainable by strengthening family farming, agroecology, food and nutrition security, food sovereignty, and decent working conditions in rural areas.
- Regional and Territorial Inequalities: Reduce inequalities across regions and territories, ensuring a more equitable distribution of the benefits of the transition throughout the country.
- Inclusive Energy Systems: Promote an energy transition that reduces energy poverty and inequalities in access to energy, while ensuring that its impacts are distributed fairly.
- Sanitation Management: Promote sustainable, low-emission, and inclusive models of basic sanitation management, strengthening the circular economy and the inclusion of workers in the formal labor market and social protection systems.
- Sustainable, Resilient, and Inclusive Cities: Transform and adapt cities and urban areas to make them more sustainable, safe, and resilient, while reducing the vulnerabilities of populations most exposed to climate risks.
- Industrial Transformation: Advance the transition of production systems toward a sustainable, resilient, and low-emission economy by encouraging innovation, local development, the adaptation of existing systems, and job and income generation.
- Resilient, Sustainable, and Low-Emission Transport: Adapt transport systems and promote new resilient, low-emission infrastructure, incorporating nature-based solutions and measures to foster social inclusion.
- Dialogue and Social Participation: Ensure the active and representative participation of vulnerable groups and communities at every stage of climate policies and actions, promoting equity across gender, race, ethnicity, and class.
- Social Protection and Fair and Inclusive Financing: Strengthen social protection mechanisms and expand access to fair and inclusive financing, prioritizing the most vulnerable groups and territories
Adaptation Plans
Brazil’s National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC), established in 2009, is the main framework for the country’s climate policy. One of its instruments is the National Adaptation Plan (PNA), first launched in 2016. In 2025, Brazil presented its Climate Plan 2024–2035, which incorporated an updated version of the PNA, known as the Plano Clima Adaptação. In February 2026, the document was submitted to the UNFCCC’s international repository of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).
The Plan places the reduction of inequalities at the heart of its implementation. Its approach is grounded in climate justice, the fight against environmental racism, and gender equality. It recognizes that the impacts of climate change and the capacity to adapt vary according to factors such as gender, race, and socioeconomic status. The document also highlights that Black populations, Indigenous Peoples, and traditional communities are disproportionately exposed to environmental and climate impacts as a result of historical and socioeconomic inequalities. In this context, addressing environmental racism requires policies that tackle these inequalities and safeguard the rights of these populations.
The Plan establishes nine National Adaptation Objectives:
- Increase the resilience of populations, cities, territories, and infrastructure in the face of the climate emergency.
- Promote sustainable and resilient production and ensure regular access to healthy and adequate food.
- Ensure water security, with sufficient water availability in terms of both quantity and quality for different uses.
- Protect, conserve, and restore ecosystems and biodiversity, ensuring the maintenance of ecosystem services.
- Promote, protect, and restore health and well-being, while respecting the ways of life of traditional peoples and communities.
- Ensure energy security in a sustainable and accessible manner.
- Promote socioeconomic development while reducing inequalities.
- Protect cultural heritage, preserving cultural practices and local knowledge in the face of climate risks.
- Strengthen the role of the ocean and coastal zone in addressing climate change.
To guide and monitor the Plan’s implementation, 12 national targets were also established, with deadlines ranging from 2030 to 2035. Key targets include:
- Expand adaptation planning: ensure that all Brazilian states and at least 35% of municipalities have Adaptation Plans by 2035.
- Reduce disaster risks: provide structural risk-reduction measures to at least 4 million people exposed to geohydrological disasters by 2035.
- Expand urban green cover: increase vegetation cover in urban areas by 180,000 hectares by 2035, prioritizing municipalities facing greater climate risks.
- Strengthen water security: reduce to 7.5% the share of municipalities classified at the lowest level of water security by 2035.
- Adapt infrastructure: ensure that 100% of infrastructure projects supported by the Federal Government take climate risks into account by 2035.
- Promote resilient agriculture: expand the adoption of diversified, sustainable, and resilient agricultural production systems to 72.68 million hectares by 2030.
- Address food insecurity: eradicate severe food and nutrition insecurity by 2035.
- Adapt the health system: ensure that 100% of state and municipal health departments in areas identified as priorities for climate emergencies are mobilized to promote the adaptation of Brazil’s Unified Health System (SUS) to climate change by 2035.
The Plan also includes 16 Sectoral and Thematic Plans, each with specific objectives, targets, and actions. They cover strategic areas such as agriculture and livestock, family farming, biodiversity, health, energy, transport, industry and mining, cities, and the ocean and coastal zone. They also address issues such as racial equality and the fight against environmental racism, as well as actions targeting Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities.
Climate Vulnerability and Risk
Score: 50.7
Resilience index
between 2050 and 2100
Vulnerability index
Main climate threats
Brazil is a country of continental dimensions, covering about 8.5 million km², making it the fifth-largest country in the world and the largest in Latin America. This territorial extent, combined with the diversity of its ecosystems and regional inequalities, means that climate risks and their impacts vary significantly across the country's regions.
According to the University of Notre Dame's ND-GAIN Index, Brazil ranks 72nd among the 190 countries assessed, indicating that it is less vulnerable to extreme climate events but not yet fully prepared and equipped to address climate change. The World Bank's report (2021) on the country's climate risks also highlights that this vulnerability poses a significant threat to economic growth and the continuity of social development.
Climate projections indicate rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves in all of Brazil's macro-regions. According to the Plano Clima Adaptação (Brazil, 2025), the heavy rainfall that caused the flooding disaster in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 is just one example of the extreme weather events that may become more frequent and intense as climate change advances. Projections point to an increase in annual rainfall in the South region and a higher incidence of extreme and persistent rainfall in the North, Southeast and South. At the same time, the Northeast, Center-West and Southeast regions are expected to face more frequent and prolonged droughts. Sea level rise may also worsen coastal flooding. In addition, ocean warming could cause a reduction of 20% or more in marine life along the Brazilian coast (World Bank, 2025).
The Amazon Rainforest, the largest tropical forest in the world, most of which (about 60%) lies within Brazilian territory, faces particularly serious risks. In addition to deforestation, rising temperatures, reduced water availability and changes in rainfall patterns could drive a process of savannization, with profound consequences for biodiversity, the hydrological cycle and the regional and global climate balance (Alves de Oliveira, 2021). More broadly, extreme events put pressure on ecosystems, urban infrastructure and the economy, especially agriculture. Brazil is home to one of the largest forest areas in the world, but also records the largest net forest loss globally (WRI, 2025). The agricultural sector plays an important role in this scenario, as the expansion of farming and livestock activities is among the main drivers of deforestation and environmental degradation in the country.
Limitations in adaptive capacity are also a concern. The AdaptaBrasil platform (run by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation) has also found that 48% of Brazil's 5,570 municipalities currently have low or very low capacity to cope with droughts, and that more than half of the country's cities have a high or very high vulnerability index to disasters such as floods, inundations and landslides. This situation is compounded by World Bank projections (2025) that Brazil's average annual temperature could rise by 0.51°C per decade between 2050 and 2100, with intensifying heat in the country's interior. Rainfall, meanwhile, will increasingly intensify in the South region and along the Brazilian coast, with greater drought in the North region.
Extreme events caused by climate change can affect the entire country, but the repercussions and intensity of their impacts affect the population unevenly. In Brazil, where pronounced social and regional inequalities persist, poverty is one of the factors that contribute most to increasing the population's sensitivity to the effects of climate change and reducing its adaptive capacity (AdaptaClima, 2025). Other factors contributing to social vulnerability include gender, color and race, and specific traditional population groups — such as Indigenous peoples, quilombola communities, riverine communities and other traditional communities—especially in contexts marked by structural inequalities. This is, therefore, a phenomenon of double exposure, in which socially vulnerable people also face environmental vulnerability, living in at-risk areas or areas with a high degree of environmental degradation, which can be understood as a form of environmental racism.