LAST UPDATED: SEP/2025. In September 2025, Ethiopia submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 (NDC 3.0) to the UNFCCC, with targets for 2025–2035. The document reaffirms the country's commitment to the Paris Agreement and places equity and social inclusion at the center of its climate agenda. In line with the principle of leaving no one behind, the NDC incorporates gender considerations, the needs of children and young people and other cross-cutting dimensions, seeking to promote inclusive and just low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways.

NDC 3.0 also sets adaptation targets for agriculture, forests, urban infrastructure, energy and water, transport, industry and mining, and health. It also includes a dedicated section on loss and damage, estimating that climate impacts cause losses equivalent to 29% of the country's average GDP over a decade, with average annual losses of between 2.5% and 2.9%.

Ethiopia has set an economy-wide mitigation target expressed relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory, that is, a reference scenario representing what would happen if the country maintained the status quo, without adopting new mitigation measures. In NDC 3.0, the country revised this trajectory, which projects emissions of 237.5 MtCO₂e in 2035.

Based on this new trajectory, Ethiopia intends to achieve an unconditional emissions reduction of 40.7%, using domestic resources. This corresponds to an emissions level of approximately 140.8 MtCO₂e in 2035. The NDC also provides for an additional reduction of 29.6%, conditional on the availability of international finance, investment, and technology transfer. With this support, the total reduction would reach 70.3% relative to the BAU trajectory, resulting in emissions of approximately 70.7 MtCO₂e in 2035.

In its previous NDC, Ethiopia had set a reduction target of 68.8% by 2030, also relative to the BAU scenario, equivalent to approximately 125.8 MtCO₂e in absolute emissions.

NDC 3.0 also presents emissions projections and mitigation potentials for different sectors of the economy, including land use and forestry (LUCF), livestock and energy, as well as managed soils, industrial processes and waste. Overall, the NDC indicates that carbon sequestration and removal associated with land use and forests, combined with the decarbonization of the energy sector, are the main drivers for meeting the country's mitigation target.

The land use and forestry sector accounts for the largest share of the mitigation effort, representing 77% of the total effort in 2035, with net removals of 155.3 MtCO₂e. This result is mainly associated with forest conservation and restoration, reforestation and sustainable land management.

The energy sector also plays an important role, accounting for 12.5% of the emissions reduction potential by 2035, corresponding to approximately 13.7 MtCO₂e. Among the main measures, the NDC highlights investments in renewable energy and the transition to cleaner transport, including initiatives already being adopted by the Ethiopian government, such as the electrification of the transport sector and the restriction on imports of new vehicles with internal combustion engines.

NDC 3.0 is also aligned with the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), which sets the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 (more details under “Long-Term Strategy (LTS)”).

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has not yet published an assessment of NDC 3.0 and its 2035 target. Its most recent analysis refers to the previous NDC, with its 2030 target, and rates Ethiopia's overall performance as “Almost Sufficient.” In that assessment, both the country's policies and actions relative to its fair share and its unconditional target are rated “1.5°C compatible.” Among the advances identified, the CAT highlights the ban on imports of vehicles with internal combustion engines and incentives for the adoption of electric vehicles.

Although not yet assessed by the CAT, NDC 3.0 shows progress in transparency by distinguishing more clearly between unconditional and conditional emissions reduction commitments, as well as their respective financing needs from domestic resources and international support. This separation makes it possible to identify more precisely which actions the government commits to implementing with its own resources and which depend on external support.

Implementation of the targets, however, faces structural challenges, especially related to financing and technical capacity. The NDC itself highlights the need for technology and knowledge transfer, as well as the strengthening of national monitoring, reporting and verification capacities. Financing, however, is one of the main obstacles to implementing the planned measures.

According to NDC 3.0, USD 106.35 billion will be needed to implement the planned actions through 2035, of which USD 66.35 billion is for mitigation and USD 40 billion for adaptation. Ethiopia commits to mobilizing at least 22.5% of this amount from domestic resources, including funds from the Green Legacy initiative and the Degraded Landscapes Restoration Special Fund. The remaining 77.5% is expected to come from external sources, such as multilateral development banks, partners, philanthropic organizations and other funders.

The NDC also foresees carbon markets as a source of financing for implementing its mitigation priorities. Ethiopia intends to participate in international voluntary markets and compliance mechanisms, as well as to develop a domestic carbon market. This strategy is especially important because 77.1% of the mitigation potential projected for 2035 is concentrated in the land use and forestry sector, which accounts for a large share of the projects with potential to generate carbon credits.

However, reliance on these mechanisms also brings challenges. The CAT warns of risks related to the forestry projects Ethiopia intends to use to generate carbon credits, such as overestimated baselines and the risk that removed carbon will not remain stored over the long term, especially in the face of possible losses of forest cover. Thus, the strong concentration of the mitigation strategy on forestry projects, combined with the expectation of using these projects in carbon markets, increases the importance of ensuring the environmental integrity of the credits and the effectiveness of the removals accounted for.

In June 2023, Ethiopia submitted its Long-Term Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) to the UNFCCC, which sets out the country's vision for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. The Ministry of Planning and Development (MoPD) developed the strategy with technical support from the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and financial support from the French Development Agency (AFD), drawing on consultations with seven sectoral working groups and several rounds of stakeholder validation.

The LT-LEDS compares three decarbonization scenarios with a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory, that is, a reference scenario representing what would happen if the country maintained the status quo, without adopting additional climate mitigation or adaptation measures. In this scenario, Ethiopia's total greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase from 299 MtCO₂e in 2020 to approximately 558.7 MtCO₂e in 2050.

The three decarbonization scenarios to 2050 take as their reference the 2030 target set in its 2021 NDC, which provided for a 68.8% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to the BAU scenario, equivalent to 125.8 MtCO₂e in absolute emissions. Ethiopia's LT-LEDS has not yet been updated to reflect the 2025 NDC 3.0.

The first scenario, “NDC-aligned,” provides for a gradual increase in climate ambition in order to meet the 2030 target and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, with net negative emissions thereafter. The “Maximum Ambition” scenario proposes bringing net zero forward to 2035. The “Delayed Action” scenario concentrates emissions reduction efforts between 2040 and 2050, missing the 2030 target but also projecting net negative emissions in 2050. Among the three alternatives, Ethiopia considers the “NDC-aligned” scenario the most plausible path to reconcile implementation feasibility with meeting its short- and long-term climate targets.

The LT-LEDS covers the energy, transport, agriculture, forests and land use, waste, and industrial processes and product use sectors. Among the main actions to reach net-zero emissions while generating socioeconomic benefits, Ethiopia highlights the creation of carbon sinks through reforestation and reduced deforestation; the electrification of energy consumption in the transport, residential, commercial and industrial sectors; and the reduction of livestock-related emissions. The document also emphasizes the role of forests in carbon removal and the importance of diversifying the energy mix to reduce dependence on hydropower generation.

The strategy recognizes that energy sector measures can generate benefits beyond reducing emissions, potentially boosting economic growth and creating jobs in the country. In addition, it is the first Ethiopian document to explicitly recognize the principles of a just transition, and it proposes a Women and Youth in Green Jobs Program to expand access to economic opportunities, especially for workers in vulnerable situations and in the informal sector.

According to the document, implementing the NDC-aligned scenario would require an estimated USD 154 billion between 2020 and 2050, of which 80% is classified as conditional on external support. The LT-LEDS projects a financing gap of around USD 4 billion per year between 2020 and 2030, which could reach USD 9 billion or more if domestic government funding declines. To reduce it, the country proposes strengthening climate finance institutions and mobilizing blended finance.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026) rates Ethiopia's net-zero strategy as “average.” Among the positive aspects, it highlights that the target covers all greenhouse gases, provides for domestic action without relying on carbon removals carried out abroad, and sets separate targets for emissions reductions and carbon removals. The LT-LEDS also presents sectoral measures and emissions pathways for the energy, transport, agriculture and industry sectors under the three proposed scenarios. However, the CAT points to the need for greater clarity on projections for the forestry and waste sectors, and recommends enshrining the target in law and improving transparency regarding its scope and carbon removal pathways.