LAST UPDATED: NOV/2025. One week before the start of COP30 in Brazil, China submitted the update to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), with new targets for 2035.

The new version of China's NDC marks two significant shifts in its climate strategy. For the first time, the country sets an absolute emissions reduction target, moving away from an exclusive focus on intensity targets (such as emissions per unit of GDP or per unit of energy). It is also the first time China incorporates all greenhouse gases into its mitigation objectives, rather than carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone.

The NDC submitted in November 2025 maintains the 2030 targets already set out in the previous 2021 version, with some updates. Whereas the previous document committed China to peaking CO₂ emissions "around 2030," the new version states that the country will reach that peak before 2030 and achieve carbon (CO₂) neutrality before 2060. It also maintains the targets of reducing CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% relative to 2005 levels and raising the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to about 25%.

The update expands the forest stock increase target, projecting growth of 6 billion m³ relative to 2005, and includes an objective that did not appear in the 2021 NDC: raising total installed wind and solar capacity to more than 1.2 billion kW.

For 2035, China sets new targets. The country commits to reducing net emissions of all greenhouse gases by between 7% and 10% below peak levels, indicating its intention to exceed that percentage, although it does not specify exactly what the peak level will be. It also intends to raise the share of non-fossil sources to more than 30% of total energy consumption, expand installed wind and solar capacity to about 3,600 GW—roughly six times the 2020 level—and increase total forest stock to more than 24 billion m³.

In addition, by 2035 the country aims to make new-energy vehicles predominant in new car sales, expand the national emissions trading scheme (NETS) to the main high-polluting sectors, and advance the building of a society better adapted to climate change, within the concept of "ecological civilization" (more details under "Just Transition").

Historically, China sets its climate commitments at levels that can already be achieved solely through existing domestic policies and ongoing investments, which increases the likelihood of meeting and even exceeding announced targets. The country, for example, has already achieved two targets set for 2030 ahead of schedule—installed wind and solar capacity and the increase in forest stock—in addition to establishing itself as the global leader in renewable energy investment (CAT, 2026).

However, when it comes to the level of climate ambition in an international context, China's commitments are considered modest. According to an analysis by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026), China's current NDC is classified as "Highly Insufficient" for meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, including with regard to the country's fair share contribution to the global mitigation effort, as it is currently the world's largest emitter.

In addition, the target of peaking emissions "before 2030" is still considered vague, as it allows emissions to keep growing until the end of the decade, undermining global ambition. The Asia Society Policy Institute (2024), for example, recommends that China reduce its emissions by at least 30% by 2035, in order to align its trajectory with the 2060 carbon neutrality target and lend greater credibility to its climate pledges.

China is seen as a potential international leader on the climate agenda, both because of the weight of its economy and the volume of its "green" investments, not only within its own territory but also on a global scale, in addition to exerting strong influence among Global South countries. Even so, it still needs to adopt more ambitious and rigorous commitments in its NDCs.

China submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTDS) to the UNFCCC portal in October 2021.

The strategy sets out general principles, priorities and policy guidelines for advancing toward a low-carbon development model and guiding this long-term transition. The government states that the elements of the LTDS will be incorporated into national economic and social development plans, ensuring its gradual implementation.

The LTDS reaffirms targets that also appear in China's NDC, such as the commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The document highlights that China intends to move from its CO₂ emissions peak to neutrality in about 30 years, noting that this is "a shorter interval than that of several developed economies." At the same time, it stresses that the country still considers itself a developing country and faces simultaneous challenges, such as economic growth, improving living conditions and controlling pollution, which makes the green transition more complex.

The strategy places strong emphasis on energy efficiency, advocating the dissemination of advanced low-, zero- or low-carbon technologies, the use of smart manufacturing, systemic integration and circular solutions in energy production and consumption processes.

The document sets out ten strategic priorities, including: promoting a green and circular economy; building a clean and efficient energy system; developing a low-emission industry; sustainable urbanization; creating a low-carbon transport system; substantially reducing non-CO₂ gas emissions; using nature-based solutions (NbS); encouraging technological innovation; expanding social participation; and strengthening climate governance.

Despite this comprehensive framework, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026) rates China's LTDS as "poor." According to the analysis, although the document sets out guidelines and priorities, there is insufficient clarity on how the targets will be implemented or on the financing mechanisms for the transition, estimated at around US$76 trillion over 30 years. Another critical point is that the neutrality targets refer specifically to carbon dioxide, not to all greenhouse gases.

The CAT notes that if the neutrality target included all greenhouse gases, the strategy could move closer to a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. Given the volume of China's emissions, this difference could represent up to 0.1°C more or less in global warming by 2100.