United Arab Emirates
Emissions profile
According to the most recent Climate Watch (2026) data, in 2023 the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was responsible for less than 1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, totaling 253 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). The country ranks 38th among the world's largest emitters. In terms of per capita emissions, the country shows an extremely high figure of about 24 tonnes (tCO₂e/inhabitant).
Regarding methane (CH₄) emissions, the most polluting GHG, the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2025) shows that the UAE is the world's 45th largest emitter. The energy sector (76%) is the largest contributor to emissions, totaling approximately 1,355 kilotonnes (kt) of CH₄.
The UAE's emissions profile is heavily dominated by the energy sector. The current structure reflects the country's economic base, centered on hydrocarbon extraction and intense energy demand for infrastructure and desalination. According to the most recent data (Climate Watch, 2026), emissions are distributed as follows:
- Energy (91%) – 229.99 MtCO₂e;
- Waste (5%) – 11.89 MtCO₂e;
- Industrial processes (4%) – 9.38 MtCO₂e;
- Agriculture (1%) – 2.26 MtCO₂e.
Energy Mix
Despite being a "petrostate" with a strong dependence on hydrocarbons in its economy and energy profile, the United Arab Emirates has sought to diversify its sources. World Economic Forum data show that the UAE invested US$40 billion in clean energy over the past 15 years (WEF, 2023).
The United Arab Emirates' energy matrix is strongly dependent on fossil fuels. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2026), in 2024 about 88% of the country's total energy supply came from oil and oil products, natural gas, and coal and coal products. Total supply, of 4,067,057 TJ, was distributed as follows:
- Natural gas (60%) – 2,428,340 TJ;
- Oil and oil products (26%) – 1,069,386 TJ;
- Nuclear (10%) – 425,454 TJ;
- Coal and coal products (2%) – 73,356 TJ;
- Solar, wind and other renewables (2%) – 68,580 TJ;
- Biofuels and waste (<1%) – 1,941 TJ.
Regarding electricity generation, the United Arab Emirates ranks 126th out of 198 countries in terms of the share of renewable sources in its electricity mix (Climate Watch, 2026). According to the IEA, approximately 8% of the country's electricity is generated from renewable sources. Electricity generation is dominated by natural gas (70% – 124,684 GWh), followed by nuclear power (22% – 39,000 GWh), solar photovoltaic (7% – 12,283 GWh), solar thermal (1% – 2,159 GWh), oil (1% – 907 GWh), and wind, which contributed 222 GWh, less than 1% of the total (IEA, 2026).
By contrast, in the World Economic Forum's Energy Transition Index (ETI) (WEF, 2026), the country ranks 49th globally, reflecting certain institutional and regulatory advances in the energy transition. Against this backdrop, the government has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable sources, particularly solar energy, and nuclear power in the electricity mix, while seeking to align economic growth, which is expected to drive higher demand, with reductions in carbon intensity.
Climate Ambition
Latest updates
Third Nationally Determined ContributionLAST UPDATED: NOV/2024. The United Arab Emirates was the first country to submit updated climate targets for 2035, having submitted its Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) in 2024.
The country states that the new NDC reflects its determination to "lead by example," highlighting the consensus reached at COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates in 2023, including the conclusion of the Paris Agreement's first Global Stocktake (GST) and the recognition of the need to promote a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.
Mitigation
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2019Baseline year (196.3 MtCO₂e)
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Third NDC2024
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2035Cut emissions by 47% (103.5 MtCO₂e)
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Net Zero target2050
The UAE's NDC 3.0 adopts a whole-of-economy strategy for mitigation. The country commits to reducing its GHG emissions by 47% by 2035 compared to the 2019 baseline (196.3 MtCO₂e), projecting emissions limited to 103.5 MtCO₂e. This target covers all domestic sectors and greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and, for the first time, fluorinated gases).
The NDC also sets specific decarbonization targets and measures for the economy's main sectors. In the built environment, the UAE projects a 79% reduction in emissions by 2035 (from 71 to 15 MtCO₂e), supported by building code revisions, energy labeling, retrofit targets, efficient cooling systems, and the integration of solar thermal energy.
In the energy sector, the largest source of emissions, the country sets a target of more than a 50% reduction in sectoral emissions by 2035 relative to 2019 (78.9 MtCO₂e), driven by a diversified mix that includes civil nuclear power (Barakah), massive solar expansion, energy efficiency, and the National Demand-Side Management (DSM) Program.
For UAE industry, a 27% reduction in industrial emissions is planned by 2035 (reaching 68.0 MtCO₂e), focusing on heavy sectors such as steel, cement, aluminum, and oil and gas, through low-carbon hydrogen, electrification with clean sources, carbon capture (CCUS), and process efficiency.
In the transport sector, the country projects a 20% reduction in sectoral emissions by 2035 (reaching 24.2 MtCO₂e), supported by accelerated adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), fuel-pricing reforms, expansion of public transport, biofuels and smart mobility.
On waste, the UAE plans a 37% reduction in waste emissions by 2035 (down to 3.0 MtCO₂e), based on landfill diversion targets (80% by 2031), recycling, and the expansion of waste-to-energy plants.
Lastly, the country sets a 39% reduction target for the agriculture sector by 2035 (reaching 2.6 MtCO₂e), supported by the National Food Security Strategy 2051, sustainable agriculture, climate-controlled greenhouses, and efficient fertilizer management.
Beyond sectoral targets, the United Arab Emirates also includes nature-based solutions (NbS) and market mechanisms for mitigation in its climate commitments. Regarding NbS, the country aims to achieve a net removal capacity of 9.3 MtCO₂e by 2035, with initiatives such as planting 160 million new mangroves by 2030 and protecting seagrass meadows.
At the same time, the UAE announces significant investments in geoengineering solutions and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technologies. Among these initiatives is Al Reyadah, the Middle East's first commercial-scale CCUS facility, operated through a partnership between the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Masdar. The facility captures CO₂ emitted by EMSTEEL (formerly Emirates Steel), contributing to its use or permanent storage. The country is also exploring Direct Air Capture (DAC) projects and the permanent storage of CO₂ in saline aquifers.
Regarding the market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the country states it will implement its guidelines through a National Carbon Market Arrangement, coordinated by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE), also envisaging the operationalization of a national carbon registry platform, intended to track and verify national carbon credits and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs).
NDC Challenges and Criticism
Although the United Arab Emirates submitted this new NDC for 2035 setting an absolute emissions reduction target, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2024) assessment finds that the country's commitment remains rated "insufficient." Although the emissions level set for 2035 is numerically lower—and therefore stricter—than the 1.5°C limit, the lack of structural and strategic coherence undermines the integrity of the plan.
According to the CAT, one of the main criticisms lies in the temporal misalignment and the stagnation of ambition for 2030. The country did not update its 2030 target—which represents only a 7% decline relative to 2019 levels—keeping it far above pathways compatible with 1.5°C. Projections indicate that the country is not on track to meet even that target under current policies, let alone achieve significant additional reductions. This shortfall raises doubts about the credibility of the 2035 target, since it would require a drastic leap and an annual rate of change of 9% in national emissions within a span of just five years between 2030 and 2035.
Other criticisms focus on the sectoral structure and the persistence of the fossil-fuel model. Although emissions cuts are expected to occur mainly in the buildings, industry and transport sectors, the electricity sector will remain predominantly based on fossil fuels, relying on an unrealistic degree of confidence in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to reach its 2050 net-zero target, rather than expanding renewable energy targets. As one of the world's leading producers and exporters of fossil fuels, the plans of its state oil company (ADNOC) point to the continued expansion of oil and gas, without committing to a gradual phase-out of production, a halt to exploration, or an end to subsidies.
The CAT also highlights weaknesses in transparency and climate finance. The new NDC specifies the overall volume of negative emissions for 2035 but omits the exact proportion allocated to technological removals versus nature-based removals. Regarding international climate finance, although the document lists significant initiatives and financial contributions, it lacks operational clarity on the annual budget, sectoral targeting and the geographic regions benefited.
Long-Term Strategy (LTS)
The Long-Term Strategy submitted by the United Arab Emirates in 2023 sets out the planning framework to guide the country's economic development in alignment with its climate neutrality target. In this document, the UAE committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, becoming the first country in the Middle East and North Africa region to adopt this economy-wide long-term target.
The plan prioritizes reconfiguring the national energy matrix, combining the accelerated expansion of renewable sources (particularly large-scale solar) with the use of nuclear energy (through the Barakah plant), aiming to reduce exclusive dependence on fossil fuels in domestic electricity generation. As one of the world's leading oil and gas producers, the strategy relies heavily on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and negative-emissions technologies to decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial sectors.
The document also highlights the development of low-carbon hydrogen as a strategic vector, both for domestic industrial consumption and for consolidating the country as a clean-energy exporter in the global market.
Regarding governance and transparency practices, the strategy details the creation of institutional frameworks and MRV (Measurement, Reporting and Verification) tools to monitor progress toward the targets, involving close coordination between the federal government and the different emirates, as well as attracting private investment through green finance and sustainable taxonomies.
Although the LTS sets the framework for climate neutrality by 2050, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2024) assessment points to caveats and criticisms regarding the robustness of the plan. According to the analysis, the country's strategy lacks operational clarity and transparency regarding the limits on the use of carbon removal and CCUS technologies, and it does not address the gradual phase-out of fossil fuel production, which limits the credibility of the strategy's alignment with the global 1.5°C warming limit.
Just Transition
Although the United Arab Emirates lends its name to one of the main international negotiating spaces on just transition and has substantial investment potential to advance this agenda, this prominence is not yet consistently reflected in its international action or national policies.
The UNFCCC's main forum dedicated to the topic was named the UAE Just Transition Work Programme, having been launched during COP28 in Dubai. The conference also produced the UAE Consensus, the first UNFCCC decision to recognize the need to promote a transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner. Despite this prominent role in international negotiations, the country still lacks a clear definition of just transition or a comprehensive national strategy to guide its implementation.
This gap is particularly relevant given the national economy's strong dependence on fossil fuels. In its NDC 3.0, the UAE mentions just transition as an approach that seeks to "minimize negative impacts while maximizing opportunities for sustainable growth, job creation and social inclusion." The document also acknowledges the need to adopt just transition measures to support workers and communities affected by the future reduction in fossil fuel use. However, an analysis by Climate Action Network International (CAN, 2025) points out that the NDC does not present a detailed plan for this transition, nor does it set clear commitments for the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels or for the protection and retraining of workers and communities dependent on that sector.
Domestically, therefore, the concept of just transition in the UAE appears to be interpreted mainly through economic and energy diversification, as envisaged in the 2030 and 2050 Visions. To operationalize this transformation, the government has promoted investments in technology, renewable energy and the green economy sectors, with the potential to generate new jobs and reduce economic dependence on hydrocarbons. It is within this framework that initiatives such as the National In-Country Value (ICV) and Green ICV programs fit: although not formulated exclusively as just transition policies, they act as diversification and economic transformation support efforts. The programs seek to expand the use of locally produced goods and services, stimulate domestic manufacturing, and strengthen employment opportunities for citizens in the private sector during the transition process.
This approach can also be seen in the strategy for mobilizing capital for sustainable investments. The ALTÉRRA fund, launched by the UAE during COP28, is presented as a vehicle for directing private investment toward projects related to the energy and climate transition, including initiatives in the Global South. Although it does not, in itself, constitute a national just-transition policy, the fund fits into the UAE's broader strategy of expanding climate finance and supporting the transformation of energy and economic systems. However, the mechanism has faced criticism and controversy for channeling resources to portfolios that maintain investments in natural gas infrastructure, which contradicts the promise of alignment with strictly clean solutions (Civillini, 2024).
Adaptation Plans
The United Arab Emirates has not submitted an official National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to the official UNFCCC portal, but the country has its own National Climate Adaptation Plan established domestically. This internal plan is structured around three main pillars aimed at guiding public officials and the private sector: identifying climate trends and their impacts on critical sectors (such as infrastructure, energy, health and water resources); prioritizing risks requiring urgent action—such as heat stress, water scarcity and coastal erosion; and mobilizing multiple sectors to integrate adaptation into public policy and monitor its effectiveness.
In its NDC, the country built its targets while acknowledging that it is located in a region highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, facing risks such as extreme heat, storm surges, sea-level rise, water stress, sandstorms and desertification, and thus formally reaffirms that viable climate strategies must encompass both mitigation and adaptation content. The document adopts a sectoral adaptation approach, mapping guidelines and specific measures for the country's strategic sectors, such as infrastructure, health, environment and water resources.
Considering that 85% of the population and more than 90% of infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise, initiatives include green and smart construction programs to integrate cutting-edge technologies. These include the use of BIM (Building Information Modelling, an integrated digital tool for design and asset management), artificial intelligence and drones. The plan also encompasses hydrodynamic modeling in partnership with New York University Abu Dhabi and the Dam Flood Warning System.
Thus, the NDC includes an adaptation component and identifies the country's adaptation priorities. However, it fails to identify the financial needs for implementing these priorities and does not adequately address loss and damage associated with climate change.
Climate Vulnerability and Risk
Score: 53.7
Resilience index
Vulnerability index
Main climate threats
The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index assesses countries' vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges, combining this analysis with the concept of readiness to absorb and implement resilience investments. In the case of the United Arab Emirates, the risk profile outlined by this model reflects a marked contrast between high environmental exposure and strong institutional and financial adaptive capacity, placing it 56th out of 190 countries in the vulnerability ranking.
The index's vulnerability component measures a country's susceptibility to damage caused by climate change, analyzing vital sectors such as food, water, health, ecosystems, human habitat and infrastructure. As highlighted in NDC 3.0 itself, being located in a highly vulnerable region, the UAE faces potential impacts that include extreme heat, storm surges, sea-level rise, water stress, dust and sandstorms, and desertification, directly affecting a range of sectors.
The country can also be considered highly vulnerable to climate change due to its adaptation inequality. The poorest population is disproportionately affected by climate risks (such as sea-level rise, rising temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme events); these are the people most exposed and most sensitive to impacts, with the fewest resources to adapt. This vulnerability shows how greater inclusion in adaptation planning and implementation, ensuring that a larger share of adaptation resources reaches local communities, could improve their capacity to adapt to climate change and reduce poverty (Climate Watch, 2026).
On the other hand, the ND-GAIN's readiness component assesses a country's capacity to channel investment toward adaptation action through economic, governance and social indicators. In this respect, the UAE shows certain advantages due to its institutional and governance capacity, as well as its recent investments in innovation and technological infrastructure, and in economic transition and resilience.