LAST UPDATED: NOV/2025. Türkiye submitted its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC as part of the NDC 3.0 update round, setting a new mitigation target for 2035. Although it is called the Second NDC, this is the third version of the document submitted by the country: the first was submitted in 2015, followed by an update in 2023 and then the Second NDC in 2025.

This latest NDC highlights the integration of mitigation, adaptation, just transition, climate finance and economic development in Türkiye's climate action. Another highlight is Climate Law No. 7552, adopted in 2025, considered Türkiye's first comprehensive climate change legislation and a "historic milestone for climate action in the country." The law establishes principles such as equity, climate justice, precaution, participation, sustainability and transparency, and provides the legal basis for creating a national emissions trading system.

The 2035 NDC does not set separate "conditional" and "unconditional" target categories. However, the document stresses that international finance, technology transfer and capacity building are important conditions for implementing this climate commitment.

Türkiye's mitigation target is economy-wide and covers the energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, waste, and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. The country does not set its main mitigation target as an absolute emissions reduction relative to a historical year, but relative to a projected emissions scenario, known as business as usual (BAU). This scenario represents the expected emissions trajectory if no additional climate measures and policies are adopted.

In the previous version of its NDC, updated in 2023, Türkiye had committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 41% by 2030 relative to the BAU scenario, which projected emissions of 1,175 MtCO₂e for that year. This target corresponded to limiting emissions to approximately 695 MtCO₂e in 2030.

The Second NDC sets the target of limiting national emissions to 643 MtCO₂e in 2035. According to the document, this represents a reduction of 466 MtCO₂e relative to the BAU scenario for the same year, which projects emissions of approximately 1,109 MtCO₂e. The reference year used to build the new BAU scenario is 2018, when the country's net emissions totaled 458.8 MtCO₂e. Based on these figures, the reduction for 2035 corresponds to about 42% relative to the BAU scenario.

At the same time, Türkiye maintains its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, as set out in its Long-Term Strategy (more details in the "Long-Term Strategy (LTS)" section).

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026) assessment rates Türkiye's 2035 climate target as "Critically Insufficient" relative to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the worst category in the assessment. According to the CAT, if all countries adopted targets with the same level of ambition, global warming could exceed 4°C by the end of the century.

Although the NDC incorporates principles such as climate justice and just transition, the 2035 mitigation target remains unambitious. According to the CAT, it is not aligned with the Paris Agreement, as it allows Turkish emissions to remain stable or even increase over the next decade, instead of starting a consistent downward trajectory.

An important point is that, although the 643 MtCO₂e limit set for 2035 is lower than the 695 MtCO₂e target for 2030, it still allows emissions considerably higher than those recorded in 2018, when the country emitted 458.8 MtCO₂e net. This is because the targets are calculated relative to the BAU scenario, a hypothetical emissions growth scenario, rather than relative to a historical year. According to the CAT, Türkiye does not transparently explain how it built this reference scenario, whose projections appear excessively high when compared with historical data. This approach can make the target appear more ambitious than it actually is.

Another issue concerns the inclusion of the land use, land-use change and forestry sector in the BAU scenario and in meeting the 2035 target. The NDC, however, does not state what contribution the sector is expected to make toward the target, nor does it detail the methodology used to estimate that contribution.

As host of COP31 and responsible for leading this year's Climate Action Agenda, Türkiye faces the challenge of strengthening its climate targets and setting a timeline for phasing out coal and fossil gas. This challenge is all the more relevant given the importance of the clean energy transition on the conference's action agenda and the country's heavy dependence on fossil fuels, both in its energy matrix and in electricity generation.

Türkiye's Long-Term Climate Strategy (LTS) was approved by the Coordination Board on Climate Change and Adaptation on November 4, 2024. The document sets out a roadmap to guide mitigation, adaptation, climate finance, technological development, capacity building and just transition policies through 2053. According to the document, its preparation involved more than 200 meetings and consultations, with approximately 6,000 participants from about 175 institutions in the public and private sectors, academia and civil society.

The strategy sets the long-term goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2053. To this end, Türkiye intends to peak its emissions by 2038 at the latest and then begin a gradual downward trajectory. The document seeks to reconcile this transition with national priorities for development, energy security, economic growth and technological transformation.

The LTS brings together 89 strategies across 18 sectors and four cross-cutting areas. Of these, 35 strategies focus on mitigation, covering seven sectors: energy, manufacturing, buildings, transport, waste, agriculture, and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Another 38 strategies address adaptation and resilience in 11 sectors: water resources management, transport, biodiversity and ecosystem services, energy, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, urban development, health, social development and disaster risk reduction. The remaining 16 strategies address four cross-cutting areas: technology, just transition, climate finance and capacity building.

The main mitigation instruments include the expansion of renewable energy, energy efficiency, electrification, nuclear energy, hydrogen, energy storage, the circular economy, industrial transformation and the development of low-carbon technologies.

In the energy sector, Türkiye intends to significantly increase the share of low-carbon sources. The strategy projects that renewables will account for 69.1% of electricity generation in 2053, up from 42.4% in 2020. It also sets the target of quadrupling combined installed solar and wind capacity by 2035 and raising the share of renewables in primary energy supply from 17% to 50% by 2053. At the same time, the country plans investments in nuclear energy, green hydrogen, energy storage and power grids.

Adaptation also plays a central role in the LTS, which extends the planning horizon beyond 2030. The proposed measures seek to incorporate climate risk assessment into public planning and investment decisions, strengthening the resilience of economic sectors, infrastructure and communities. Priorities include water resources management, biodiversity protection, the adaptation of cities and of transport, energy, health, agriculture and tourism systems, as well as strengthening social protection and disaster response capacity.

Türkiye stresses that achieving climate neutrality by 2053 will require additional annual investment equivalent to at least 1.7% of gross national income (Türkiye, 2026). Of this amount, an estimated 1% is expected to be mobilized by the private sector and 0.7% by the public sector, covering the energy, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture and forestry sectors.

Although it sets the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, the strategy has limitations regarding transparency and demonstrating how this target will be achieved. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2026) rates Türkiye's carbon neutrality target as "poor." The country's proposed pathway foresees emissions peaking as late as 2038, leaving a 15-year window to reach neutrality. Based on historical data and current policy projections, the CAT considers it uncertain whether the country will be able to achieve this goal within that period and stresses the need to start reducing emissions as soon as possible.

Among the positive aspects of the LTS, the CAT highlights the setting of specific emissions reduction targets for some industrial subsectors, such as cement, iron and steel, aluminum and fertilizers. However, these initiatives are isolated. Overall, there is a lack of clear emissions reduction targets for the different sectors and of pathways showing how the proposed measures, taken together, will make it possible to achieve climate neutrality by 2053.

The approval of Climate Law No. 7552 in 2025 also represented an institutional advance by providing legal backing for the carbon neutrality target and the country's other climate goals. Even so, the CAT recommends that Türkiye increase the transparency of its LTS by publishing detailed emissions pathways and government projections to 2053, in order to demonstrate how it intends to achieve climate neutrality.